科学技术活动的指标、模型与推论     

谷兴荣 《评价与管理》2006,(1)

科学技术活动的指标、数学模型等问题是一个讨论多年而未解决的问题,本文从科学技术活动的投入产出角度提出了相应的指标系列;并从科学技术投入产出的一因一果关系、多因一果关系、多因多果关系、线性与非线性关系等方面提出了相应的数学模型及定义定理;最后,根据这些定义定理,提出了科学技术发展在正常时期 (继承发展时期)和非常时期(转化、革命时期)的有关推论。  相似文献   

Macroappraisal Kiwi Style: Reflections on the Impact and Future of Macroappraisal in New Zealand     

John Roberts 《Archival Science》2005,5(2-4):185-201

Both macroappraisal and the Australian records continuum-based DIRKS methodology have been influential in the New Zealand debate on appraisal in recent years. The primary influence of macroappraisal has been in the area of prioritisation of appraisal work. This paper considers New Zealand thinking on prioritisation, and the influences of risk management and functional analysis on this issue. A lack of agreement on the purpose of appraisal in the professional literature is noted, and some personal suggestions are offered on a model taking elements from macroappraisal and other methodologies.  相似文献   

医学论文中logistic回归分析的误用及案例分析     

韩宏志  官鑫  李欣欣  姜瑾秋  王丽 《编辑学报》2018,30(6):586-588

logistic回归分析在医学研究领域应用较为广泛,但因其涉及的因素较多,统计方法较为复杂,部分研究者未咨询流行病学和卫生统计学专业人员而盲目套用统计学方法,造成其在应用logistic回归分析处理数据时出现诸如自变量选取和纳入、统计模型选择、结果表述和报告时误用错用情况的发生。本文选取公开发表的医学论文,举例分析文章中logistic回归误用错用的情况,指出其正确应用方法,为医学期刊编辑处理类似稿件提供参考。  相似文献   

中国大陆侨资与外资发展比较研究——基于2005——2008数据分析     

龙大为  谭天星 《云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2011,43(4):84-90

对近年来中国FDI数据与国侨办侨资企业数据库进行全面比较和深入研究发现,近年来的中国侨资企业发展大大超过外资成长:新批侨资企业数量连续大幅度增加且大大超过外资成长;新增侨资在全国FDI中的比重逐年提高;侨资企业平均投资额大增,并且在制造业中比重下降;新批侨资企业主要来源地分布较广,位次变化显著.这一转变根本的原因在于,大多数侨资企业在一二十年的中国经济高速快车上不断壮大,经营规模与产业层次得到提升,与世界企业的差距大大缩小,国际竞争力日益增强。这一重大转变在这次研究中首次被揭示,应引起有关部门的重视。政策取向必须随着新的形势变化应适时调整,高度重视侨资企业的发展。  相似文献   

基于对应分析模型原理的户外运动安全风险研究     

欧雅怡  刘〓亚  马逢伯 《广州体育学院学报》2017,37(2):43-48

通过对我国2001年至2014年期间,258个户外运动安全事故案例的统计和分析,结合国内外相关研究,建立户外运动安全风险分析框架,将户外运动安全风险划分为4个维度,18个因素指标.根据对应分析模型原理,深入研究户外运动中季节、月份与时段风险的对应性关系,R(3.2.0)软件运行结果显示:户外运动中,凌晨和晚上的风险指数最高;春季、秋季的上午和下午时段,可能存在的伤亡风险几率较高;5月、9月、10月的上午和晚上,3月、6月、11月、12月的下午,1月和4月的凌晨时段,可能存在的伤亡风险几率更高.使用Minitab软件,根据累积贡献率80％以上为主要因素的帕累托原则得到8个主要风险因素和7个次要风险因素.  相似文献   

Fatigue increases ankle sprain risk in badminton players: A biomechanical study     

Alexis Herbaut  Julien Delannoy 《Journal of sports sciences》2020,38(13):1560-1565

ABSTRACT

Ankle sprains are the most common injury in regular badminton players and usually occur at the end of a match or training. The purpose of the present study was to examine the influence of fatigue produced by badminton practice on the lower limb biomechanics of badminton players. It was hypothesized that fatigue induces ankle kinematic and lower leg muscle activity changes which may increase the risk of ankle sprain. Ankle kinematics, ankle kinetics and muscles activities of 17 regular badminton players were recorded during lateral jumps before and after an intense badminton practice session. Post-fatigue, ankle inversion at foot strike and peak ankle inversion increased (+2.6°, p = 0.003 and +2.5°, p = 0.005, respectively). EMG pre-activation within 100 ms before foot landing significantly decreased after fatigue for soleus (?23.4%, p = 0.031), gastrocnemius lateralis (?12.2%, p = 0.035), gastrocnemius medialis (?23.3%, p = 0.047) and peroneus brevis (?17.4%, p = 0.036). These results demonstrate impaired biomechanics of badminton players when fatigue increases, which may cause a greater risk of experiencing an ankle sprain injury.  相似文献   

Screening for risk of low energy availability in athletic and recreationally active females in Ireland     

Danielle M. Logue  Sharon M. Madigan  Mirjam Heinen  Sarah-Jane McDonnell  Eamonn Delahunt  Clare A. Corish 《European Journal of Sport Science》2019,19(1):112-122

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Low energy availability (LEA) results in physiological adaptations, which can contribute to unfavourable health outcomes. Little information exists on risk of LEA in active individuals competing in different sports or levels of competition. The aims of this study were to (1) identify risk of LEA in females competing at different levels of competition and (2) investigate associations between risk of LEA, illness and dietary habits. Methods: The validated questionnaire, ‘Low Energy Availability in Females Questionnaire’ was distributed online (November 2016–February 2017) to assess risk of LEA. Twenty-nine additional questions collected information on demographics, illness history and dietary habits. Participants were considered at risk of LEA if they attained a score of?≥?8 and were grouped into: (i) international; (ii) provincial/inter-county; (iii) competitive; and (iv) recreationally active. Chi-square and logistic regression analyses were used to explore differences between those at risk or not at risk of LEA. Results: Risk of LEA was identified in 40% (n?=?331) of 833 participants and was 1.7 and 1.8 times more likely in international and provincial/inter-county athletes compared to those who were recreationally active (International: odds ratios (OR) 1.68, 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) 1.12–2.54; Provincial/inter-county: OR 1.83, 95%CI 1.20–2.77). In participants at risk of LEA, missing >22 days of training during the previous year due to illness occurred 3 times more frequently (OR 3.01, 95%CI 1.81–5.02). Conclusion: Risk of LEA was widespread in this heterogeneous sample. Awareness of LEA and the development of appropriate energy management strategies to ensure athlete health across levels of competition are required.  相似文献   

现代探险性运动休闲对我国运动休闲产业的启示     

张〓璐 《广州体育学院学报》2019,(1):74-77

人类的探险行为从工作所需演变为今天的探险运动，它折射着人类自身发展的脚步，也预示着人类未来生活的追求。当今的人们不需要去真正探险，但探险性运动休闲在满足人们探险的好奇心的同时，也提供给人们一种高品质的休闲方式，它是未来运动休闲的主方向，当然也就是运动休闲产业发展的主题。我国运动休闲产业历经多年发展而仍然处于边缘状态，探险性运动休闲则可以成为未来我国运动休闲产业发展的突破口。  相似文献   

生活方式干预对心血管疾病危险因素的影响——美国HELPS项目成果     

Peter H. Brubaker  罗曦娟  Chelsea Boltj  Shuchang Du 《北京体育大学学报》2017,40(6):48-53

摘要：心血管疾病（CVD）一直是全世界最主要的死因。由于CVD等慢性疾病对健康的威胁越来越大，有必要开展生活方式干预项目以控制这些疾病的危险因素。本研究的目的是评估美国的重要慢病干预项目—HELPS治疗型生活方式改变（TLC）项目对减少CVD危险因素和其他慢性疾病的有效性。方法：140位大学教职工参加为期12周的HELPS TLC项目，干预前后用配对t检验对其体重、BMI、腰围（WC）、6分钟步行距离（6MWD）、空腹血脂和血糖进行测定和比较。结果：干预后6MWD显著增加，总胆固醇（TC）和WC显著下降。对“高危”参与者进一步分析显示：BMI（-1.5±0.5，-3.9%）、TC（- 22.8±4.0，-9.0%）、LDL（- 14.1±4.9，9.3%）和血糖（-6.9±2.2，-6.1%）均显著下降；男性腰围（-4.5±0.8，-10%）显著减小，女性未见显著改变（-1.5±0.5，-4.0%）。此外，体重的变化与TC（r=0.43）、LDL（r=0.35）和血糖（r=0.44）的变化均显著相关。结论：参加12周的生活方式干预项目可以使CVD危险因素减少，特别是在CVD“高危”个体中。HELPS TLC项目的远期效果还待进一步深入研究。  相似文献   

基于系统动力学的客滚船航行安全仿真     

郭国平  徐元春  吴兵 《上海海事大学学报》2017,38(2):12-16

为保障客滚船航行安全,在分析客滚船航行安全影响因素的基础上,构建客滚船航行安全因果关系图,并运用Vensim-DSS构建客滚船航行安全仿真模型.对渤海上的某一客滚船的航行安全进行仿真,分析安全投入增加对客滚船航行安全水平的影响,得出结论:客滚船航行安全系统是一个复杂的动态系统,其航行风险主要是由人、货物、自然环境、交通环境、硬件设施和管理等6个因素交叉耦合导致的,其中人、货物和自然环境对客滚船的航行安全水平影响显著.这可为客滚船航行安全风险管理及防控方面的研究提供参考.  相似文献